Resurgent Authoritarian Influence?

1. Introduce data on Russian and Chinese influence on developing countries
2. Describe influence cross-nationally and over time
3. Examine Russia’s pre-invasion behavior

Resurgent Authoritarian Influence?

Background:

• Collapse of Soviet Union: less influence by autocracies
• Recently, powerful autocracies becoming more assertive in foreign policy

Foreign Influence:

• Actions by the government of an influencing country to affect the policies, capacity, or behavior of a target country to advance its own national interests

Influence Tools

Data Processing Pipeline

Example of Hard Power

Example of Diplomacy

Describing RAI: Spheres

1. Russian influence is more concentrated in a geographic sphere of influence
2. Spheres of influence are shifting over time
3. Russia has dramatically expanded its sphere in recent years, challenging China’s dominance

Describing RAI: Spheres

Describing RAI: Spheres

Describing RAI: Tools

• Economic Power is the most prevalent theme
• Beginning in 2022, Diplomacy increases dramatically in places where Russia’s influence grew

Describing RAI: Tools

Describing RAI: Tools

Describing RAI: Tools

Did Russia Signal Invasion?

Did Russia Signal Invasion?

Did Russia Signal Invasion?

Did Russia Signal Invasion?

Explaining Increased Influence

• Explain variation in:
  • Countries with largest increase in Russian influence
• Potential causes of targeting:
  • Geopolitical alignment (UN Ideal Point Distance)
  • Strategic value (exports and exports)

Hard Power - Change in Articles

Discussion

• RAI dataset provides a quantified measure of Russia and Chinese influence efforts
• Highlights differences in strategic approaches:
  • Russian focus on Hard Power and Diplomacy
  • Chinese emphasis on Economic influence
• For Academics:
  • Granular data provides additional leverage for inference
  • Provides useful guide for conducting similar analyses in the future