Machine Learning for Peace:

Infrastructure and Applications

PDRI-DevLab

University of Pennsylvania

October 6, 2025

Donald Moratz

PhD Candidate

Jeremy Springman, Erik Wibbels, Serkant Adiguzel, Mateo Villamizar Chaparro, Zung-Ru Lin, Diego Romero, Hanling Su, Mahda Soltani

Resurgent Authoritarian Influence?


  1. Introduce data on Russian and Chinese influence on developing countries
  2. Describe influence cross-nationally and over time
  3. Examine Russia’s pre-invasion behavior

Resurgent Authoritarian Influence?

Background:

  • Collapse of Soviet Union: less influence by autocracies
  • Recently, powerful autocracies becoming more assertive in foreign policy

Foreign Influence:

  • Actions by the government of an influencing country to affect the policies, capacity, or behavior of a target country to advance its own national interests

Influence Tools

Data Processing Pipeline

Example of Hard Power

Example of Diplomacy

Describing RAI: Spheres


  1. Russian influence is more concentrated in a geographic sphere of influence
  2. Spheres of influence are shifting over time
  3. Russia has dramatically expanded its sphere in recent years, challenging China’s dominance

Describing RAI: Spheres

Describing RAI: Spheres

Describing RAI: Tools


  • Economic Power is the most prevalent theme
  • Beginning in 2022, Diplomacy increases dramatically in places where Russia’s influence grew

Describing RAI: Tools

Describing RAI: Tools

Describing RAI: Tools

Did Russia Signal Invasion?

Did Russia Signal Invasion?

Did Russia Signal Invasion?

Did Russia Signal Invasion?

Explaining Increased Influence

  • Explain variation in:
    • Countries with largest increase in Russian influence
  • Potential causes of targeting:
    • Geopolitical alignment (UN Ideal Point Distance)
    • Strategic value (exports and exports)

Hard Power - Change in Articles

Discussion

  • RAI dataset provides a quantified measure of Russia and Chinese influence efforts
  • Highlights differences in strategic approaches:
    • Russian focus on Hard Power and Diplomacy
    • Chinese emphasis on Economic influence
  • For Academics:
    • Granular data provides additional leverage for inference
    • Provides useful guide for conducting similar analyses in the future

Appendix

Russian Import Reliance

Russian Export Reliance

Exporters of Russian Imports

Importers of Russian Exports